Counterfactual impact of China’s integration on global scientific network structure

Determine the structure and evolution of the global scientific co-authorship network under the counterfactual in which China did not integrate into the network or followed a different developmental trajectory, and assess whether the observed transition from a hub-dependent architecture to a distributed multipolar structure would have occurred through ordinary network maturation absent China’s integration.

Background

The paper documents a major reorganization of the global scientific collaboration network from 2001–2024, with declining U.S. topological betweenness and increasing global efficiency and k-core participation. While Granger analyses show China’s participation preceded some structural changes, the authors explicitly note that drawing definitive causal conclusions requires counterfactual analysis.

They highlight a specific unresolved counterfactual: how the network would have evolved without China’s integration or with a different Chinese trajectory. Addressing this would clarify whether China accelerated a maturation process or was essential to it.