Eccentric Massive Black Hole Binaries in LISA I : The Detection Capabilities of Circular Templates

Abstract: One of the major assumptions in the search for gravitational wave signatures from massive and supermassive black hole binaries with LISA, is that these systems will have circularized before entering the LISA bandwidth. Current astrophysical simulations now suggest that systems could have a non-negligible eccentricity in the LISA band, and an important level of eccentricity in the Pulsar Timing regime. In this work, we use a set of source catalogues from astrophysically motivated models of massive black hole binary formation and assume a one year LISA mission lifetime. Depending on the model in question, the initial eccentricities in the final year of the inspiral can be as high as 0.6 for high mass seeds and 0.8 for low mass seeds. We show that restricted post-Newtonian circular templates are extremely inefficient in recovering eccentric binaries, with median optimal signal to noise ratio recoveries of approximately 10% for all models considered. This coupled with extremely large errors in parameter recovery from individual Markov chain Monte Carlo's demonstrate quite clearly that even to search for binaries with initial eccentricities as low as $10^{-4}$, we will require eccentric templates for LISA data analysis.