Rare events in population genetics: Stochastic tunneling in a two-locus model with recombination

Abstract: We study the evolution of a population in a two-locus genotype space, in which the negative effects of two single mutations are overcompensated in a high fitness double mutant. We discuss how the interplay of finite population size, $N$, and sexual recombination at rate $r$ affects the escape times $t_\mathrm{esc}$ to the double mutant. For small populations demographic noise generates massive fluctuations in $t_\mathrm{esc}$. The mean escape time varies non-monotonically with $r$, and grows exponentially as $\ln t_{\mathrm{esc}} \sim N(r - r^\ast)^{3/2}$ beyond a critical value $r^\ast$.