Three lemmas on the dynamic cavity method

Abstract: We study the dynamic cavity method for dilute kinetic Ising models with synchronous update rules. For the parallel update rule we find for fully asymmetric models that the dynamic cavity equations reduce to a Markovian dynamics of the (time-dependent) marginal probabilities. For the random sequential update rule, also an instantiation of a synchronous update rule, we find on the other hand that the dynamic cavity equations do not reduce to a Markovian dynamics, unless an additional assumption of time factorization is introduced. For symmetric models we show that a fixed point of ordinary Belief propagation is also a fixed point of the dynamic cavity equations in the time factorized approximation. For clarity, the conclusions of the paper are formulated as three lemmas.