Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample

Published 8 May 2011 in cs.DC, math.PR, and stat.CO | (1105.1486v1)

Abstract: The standard textbook method for estimating the probability of a biased coin from finite tosses implicitly assumes the sample sizes are large and gives incorrect results for small samples. We describe the exact solution, which is correct for any sample size.

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