Quantifying Model Uncertainties in the Space of Probability Measures

Abstract: Due to lack of scientific understanding, some mechanisms may be missing in mathematical modeling of complex phenomena in science and engineering. These mathematical models thus contain some uncertainties such as uncertain parameters. One method to estimate these parameters is based on pathwise observations, i.e., quantifying model uncertainty in the space of sample paths for system evolution. Another method is devised here to estimate uncertain parameters, or unknown system functions, based on experimental observations of probability distributions for system evolution. This is called the quantification of model uncertainties in the space of probability measures. A few examples are presented to demonstrate this method, analytically or numerically.