Efficient Data Augmentation in Dynamic Models for Binary and Count Data

Abstract: Dynamic linear models with Gaussian observations and Gaussian states lead to closed-form formulas for posterior simulation. However, these closed-form formulas break down when the response or state evolution ceases to be Gaussian. Dynamic, generalized linear models exemplify a class of models for which this is the case, and include, amongst other models, dynamic binomial logistic regression and dynamic negative binomial regression. Finding and appraising posterior simulation techniques for these models is important since modeling temporally correlated categories or counts is useful in a variety of disciplines, including ecology, economics, epidemiology, medicine, and neuroscience. In this paper, we present one such technique, P\'olya-Gamma data augmentation, and compare it against two competing methods. We find that the P\'olya-Gamma approach works well for dynamic logistic regression and for dynamic negative binomial regression when the count sizes are small. Supplementary files are provided for replicating the benchmarks.