Asymptotic theory of sequential detection and identification in the hidden Markov models

Abstract: We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain. The objective is to detect quickly the event that the hidden Markov chain leaves a certain set of states, and to identify accurately the class of states into which it is absorbed. We propose computationally tractable sequential detection and identification strategies and obtain sufficient conditions for the asymptotic optimality in two Bayesian formulations. Numerical examples are provided to confirm the asymptotic optimality and to examine the rate of convergence.