Adelic openness without the Mumford-Tate conjecture

Abstract: Let $X$ be a non-singular projective variety over a number field $K$, $i$ a non-negative integer, and $V_{\A}$, the etale cohomology of $\bar X$ with coefficients in the ring of finite adeles $\A_f$ over $\Q$. Assuming the Mumford-Tate conjecture, we formulate a conjecture (Conjecture 1.2) describing the largeness of the image of the absolute Galois group $G_K$ in $H(\A_f)$ under the adelic Galois representation $\rho_{\A}: G_K -> \Aut(V_{\A})=\GL_n(\A_f)$, where $H$ is the Hodge group. The motivating example is a celebrated theorem of Serre, which asserts that if $X$ is an elliptic curve without complex multiplication over $\bar K$ and $i=1$, then $\rho_{\A}(G_K)$ is an open subgroup of $\GL_2(\hat \Z)\subset \GL_2(\A_f)$. We state and in some cases prove a weaker conjecture which does not require Mumford-Tate but which, together with Mumford-Tate, implies Conjecture 1.2. We also relate our conjectures to Serre's conjectures on maximal motives.