Gravitational Wave Hotspots: Ranking Potential Locations of Single-Source Gravitational Wave Emission

Abstract: The steadily improving sensitivity of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems in the nearby universe will be de- tectable sometime during the next decade. Currently, PTAs assume an equal probability of detection from every sky position, but as evidence grows for a non-isotropic distribution of sources, is there a most likely sky position for a detectable single source of GWs? In this paper, a collection of galactic catalogs is used to calculate various metrics related to the detectability of a single GW source resolv- able above a GW background, assuming that every galaxy has the same probability of containing a SMBHB. Our analyses of these data reveal small probabilities that one of these sources is currently in the PTA band, but as sensitivity is improved regions of consistent probability density are found in predictable locations, specifically around local galaxy clusters.