Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

Abstract: Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo -- a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point -- an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice - albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.