Nonparametric Markovian Learning of Triggering Kernels for Mutually Exciting and Mutually Inhibiting Multivariate Hawkes Processes

Abstract: In this paper, we address the problem of fitting multivariate Hawkes processes to potentially large-scale data in a setting where series of events are not only mutually-exciting but can also exhibit inhibitive patterns. We focus on nonparametric learning and propose a novel algorithm called MEMIP (Markovian Estimation of Mutually Interacting Processes) that makes use of polynomial approximation theory and self-concordant analysis in order to learn both triggering kernels and base intensities of events. Moreover, considering that N historical observations are available, the algorithm performs log-likelihood maximization in $O(N)$ operations, while the complexity of non-Markovian methods is in $O(N^{2})$. Numerical experiments on simulated data, as well as real-world data, show that our method enjoys improved prediction performance when compared to state-of-the art methods like MMEL and exponential kernels.