Future Influence Ranking of Scientific Literature

Abstract: Researchers or students entering a emerging research area are particularly interested in what newly published papers will be most cited and which young researchers will become influential in the future, so that they can catch the most recent advances and find valuable research directions. However, predicting the future importance of scientific articles and authors is challenging due to the dynamic nature of literature networks and evolving research topics. Different from most previous studies aiming to rank the current importance of literatures and authors, we focus on \emph{ranking the future popularity of new publications and young researchers} by proposing a unified ranking model to combine various available information. Specifically, we first propose to extract two kinds of text features, words and words co-occurrence to characterize innovative papers and authors. Then, instead of using static and un-weighted graphs, we construct time-aware weighted graphs to distinguish the various importance of links established at different time. Finally, by leveraging both the constructed text features and graphs, we propose a mutual reinforcement ranking framework called \emph{MRFRank} to rank the future importance of papers and authors simultaneously. Experimental results on the ArnetMiner dataset show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the baselines on the metric \emph{recommendation intensity}.