Uncertainty Quantification of the Pion-Nucleon Low-Energy Coupling Constants up to Fourth Order in Chiral Perturbation Theory

Abstract: We extract the statistical uncertainties for the pion-nucleon ($\pi N$) low energy constants (LECs) up to fourth order $\mathcal{O}(Q^4)$ in the chiral expansion of the nuclear effective Lagrangian. The LECs are optimized with respect to experimental scattering data. For comparison, we also present an uncertainty quantification that is based solely on \pin{} scattering phase shifts. Statistical errors on the LECs are critical in order to estimate the subsequent uncertainties in \textit{ab initio} modeling of light and medium mass nuclei which exploit chiral effective field theory. As an example of the this, we present the first complete predictions with uncertainty quantification of peripheral phase shifts of elastic proton-neutron scattering.