Fixation probability of rare nonmutator and evolution of mutation rates

Abstract: Although mutations drive the evolutionary process, the rates at which the mutations occur are themselves subject to evolutionary forces. Our purpose here is to understand the role of selection and random genetic drift in the evolution of mutation rates, and we address this question in asexual populations at mutation-selection equilibrium neglecting selective sweeps. Using a multitype branching process, we calculate the fixation probability of a rare nonmutator in a large asexual population of mutators, and find that a nonmutator is more likely to fix when the deleterious mutation rate of the mutator population is high. Compensatory mutations in the mutator population are found to decrease the fixation probability of a nonmutator when the selection coefficient is large. But, surprisingly, the fixation probability changes nonmonotonically with increasing compensatory mutation rate when the selection is mild. Using these results for the fixation probability and a drift-barrier argument, we find a novel relationship between the mutation rates and the population size. We also discuss the time to fix the nonmutator in an adapted population of asexual mutators, and compare our results with experiments.