A Bayesian Change Point Model for Detecting Land Cover Changes in MODIS Time Series

Abstract: As both a central task in Remote Sensing and a common problem in many other situations involving time series data, change point detection boasts a thorough and well-documented history of study. However, the treatment of missing data and proper exploitation of the structure in multivariate time series during change point detection remains lacking. Multispectral, high temporal resolution time series data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments provide an attractive and challenging context to contribute to the change point detection literature. In an effort to better monitor change in land cover using MODIS data, we present a novel approach to identifying periods of time in which regions experience some conversion-type of land cover change. That is, we propose a method for parameter estimation and change point detection in the presence of missing data which capitalizes on the high dimensionality of MODIS data. We test the quality of our method in a simulation study alongside a contemporary change point method and apply it in a case study at the Xingu River Basin in the Amazon. Not only does our method maintain a high accuracy, but can provide insight into the types of changes occurring via land cover conversion probabilities. In this way we can better characterize the amount and types of forest disturbance in our study area in comparison to traditional change point methods.