Combining allele frequency uncertainty and population substructure corrections in forensic DNA calculations

Abstract: In forensic DNA calculations of relatedness of individuals and in DNA mixture analyses, two sources of uncertainty are present concerning the allele frequencies used for evaluating genotype probabilities when evaluating likelihoods. They are: (i) imprecision in the estimates of the allele frequencies in the population by using an inevitably finite database of DNA profiles to estimate them; and (ii) the existence of population substructure. Green and Mortera (2009) showed that these effects may be taken into account individually using a common Dirichlet model within a Bayesian network formulation, but that when taken in combination this is not the case; however they suggested an approximation that could be used. Here we develop a slightly different approximation that is shown to be exact in the case of a single individual. We demonstrate the closeness of the approximation numerically using a published database of allele counts, and illustrate the effect of incorporating the approximation into calculations of a recently published statistical model of DNA mixtures.