The influence of time and discipline on the magnitude of correlations between citation counts and quality scores

Abstract: Although various citation-based indicators are commonly used to help research evaluations, there are ongoing controversies about their value. In response, they are often correlated with quality ratings or with other quantitative indicators in order to partly assess their validity. When correlations are calculated for sets of publications from multiple disciplines or years, however, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient may be reduced, masking the strength of the underlying correlation. In response, this article uses simulations to systematically investigate the extent to which mixing years or disciplines reduces correlations. The results show that mixing two sets of articles with different correlation strengths can reduce the correlation for the combined set to substantially below the average of the two. Moreover, even mixing two sets of articles with the same correlation strength but different mean citation counts can substantially reduce the correlation for the combined set. The extent of the reduction in correlation also depends upon whether the articles assessed have been pre-selected for being high quality and whether the relationship between the quality ratings and citation counts is linear or exponential. The results underline the importance of using homogeneous data sets but also help to interpret correlation coefficients when this is impossible.