Semantic Scan: Detecting Subtle, Spatially Localized Events in Text Streams

Abstract: Early detection and precise characterization of emerging topics in text streams can be highly useful in applications such as timely and targeted public health interventions and discovering evolving regional business trends. Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeling. However, these methods have numerous shortcomings that make them unsuitable for rapid detection of locally emerging events on massive text streams. In this paper, we describe Semantic Scan (SS) that has been developed specifically to overcome these shortcomings in detecting new spatially compact events in text streams. Semantic Scan integrates novel contrastive topic modeling with online document assignment and principled likelihood ratio-based spatial scanning to identify emerging events with unexpected patterns of keywords hidden in text streams. This enables more timely and accurate detection and characterization of anomalous, spatially localized emerging events. Semantic Scan does not require manual intervention or labeled training data, and is robust to noise in real-world text data since it identifies anomalous text patterns that occur in a cluster of new documents rather than an anomaly in a single new document. We compare Semantic Scan to alternative state-of-the-art methods such as Topics over Time, Online LDA, and Labeled LDA on two real-world tasks: (i) a disease surveillance task monitoring free-text Emergency Department chief complaints in Allegheny County, and (ii) an emerging business trend detection task based on Yelp reviews. On both tasks, we find that Semantic Scan provides significantly better event detection and characterization accuracy than competing approaches, while providing up to an order of magnitude speedup.