New Online Ecology of Adversarial Aggregates: ISIS and beyond

Abstract: Support for extremist entities - whether from the far right, or far left - often manages to survive globally online despite significant external pressure, and may ultimately inspire violent acts by individuals having no obvious prior history of extremism. Examining longitudinal records of extremist online activity, we uncovered an ecology evolving on a daily timescale that drives online support, and we provide a mathematical theory that describes it. The ecology features self-organized aggregates (online groups such as on Facebook or another social media analog) that proliferate preceding the onset of recent real-world campaigns, and adopt novel adaptive mechanisms to enhance their survival. One of the predictions is that development of large, potentially potent online groups can be thwarted by targeting smaller ones.