On the adoption of abductive reasoning for time series interpretation

Abstract: Time series interpretation aims to provide an explanation of what is observed in terms of its underlying processes. The present work is based on the assumption that the common classification-based approaches to time series interpretation suffer from a set of inherent weaknesses, whose ultimate cause lies in the monotonic nature of the deductive reasoning paradigm. In this document we propose a new approach to this problem, based on the initial hypothesis that abductive reasoning properly accounts for the human ability to identify and characterize the patterns appearing in a time series. The result of this interpretation is a set of conjectures in the form of observations, organized into an abstraction hierarchy and explaining what has been observed. A knowledge-based framework and a set of algorithms for the interpretation task are provided, implementing a hypothesize-and-test cycle guided by an attentional mechanism. As a representative application domain, interpretation of the electrocardiogram allows us to highlight the strengths of the proposed approach in comparison with traditional classification-based approaches.