The variance of divisor sums in arithmetic progressions

Abstract: We study the variance of sums of the $k$-fold divisor function $d_k(n)$ over sparse arithmetic progressions, with averaging over both residue classes and moduli. In a restricted range, we confirm an averaged version of a recent conjecture about the asymptotics of this variance. This result is closely related to moments of Dirichlet $L$-functions and our proof relies on the asymptotic large sieve.