Delayed Bet-Hedging Resilience Strategies Under Environmental Fluctuations

Abstract: Many biological populations, such as bacterial colonies, have developed through evolution a protection mechanism, called bet-hedging, to increase their probability of survival under stressful environmental fluctutation. In this context, the concept of preadaptation refers to a common type of bet-hedging protection strategy in which a relatively small number of individuals in a population stochastically switch their phenotypes to a `dormant' metabolic state in which they increase their probability of survival against potential environmental shocks. Hence, if an environmental shock took place at some point in time, preadapted organisms would be better adapted to survive and proliferate once the shock is over. In many biological populations, the mechanisms of preadaptation and proliferation present delays whose influence in the fitness of the population are not well-understood. In this paper, we propose a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze the role of delays in both preadaptation and proliferation mechanisms in the survival of biological populations, with an emphasis on bacterial colonies. Our theoretical framework allows us to analytically quantify the average growth rate of a bet-hedging bacterial colony with stochastically delayed reactions with arbitrary precision. We verify the accuracy of the proposed method by numerical simulations and conclude that the growth rate of a bet-hedging population shows a non-trivial dependency on their preadaptation and proliferation delays. Contrary to the current belief, our results show that faster reactions do not, in general, increase the overall fitness of a biological population.