Practical Learning of Predictive State Representations

Abstract: Over the past decade there has been considerable interest in spectral algorithms for learning Predictive State Representations (PSRs). Spectral algorithms have appealing theoretical guarantees; however, the resulting models do not always perform well on inference tasks in practice. One reason for this behavior is the mismatch between the intended task (accurate filtering or prediction) and the loss function being optimized by the algorithm (estimation error in model parameters). A natural idea is to improve performance by refining PSRs using an algorithm such as EM. Unfortunately it is not obvious how to apply apply an EM style algorithm in the context of PSRs as the Log Likelihood is not well defined for all PSRs. We show that it is possible to overcome this problem using ideas from Predictive State Inference Machines. We combine spectral algorithms for PSRs as a consistent and efficient initialization with PSIM-style updates to refine the resulting model parameters. By combining these two ideas we develop Inference Gradients, a simple, fast, and robust method for practical learning of PSRs. Inference Gradients performs gradient descent in the PSR parameter space to optimize an inference-based loss function like PSIM. Because Inference Gradients uses a spectral initialization we get the same consistency benefits as PSRs. We show that Inference Gradients outperforms both PSRs and PSIMs on real and synthetic data sets.