A Global Bayesian Analysis of Neutrino Mass Data

Abstract: We perform a global Bayesian analysis of currently available neutrino data, putting data from oscillation experiments, neutrinoless double beta decay ($0\nu\beta\beta$), and precision cosmology on an equal footing. We evaluate the discovery potential of future $0\nu\beta\beta$ experiments and the Bayes factor of the two possible neutrino mass ordering schemes for different prior choices. We show that the indication for normal ordering is still very mild and does not strongly depend on realistic prior assumptions or different combinations of cosmological data sets. We find a wide range for $0\nu\beta\beta$ discovery potential, depending on the absolute neutrino mass scale, mass ordering and achievable background level.