Convergence diagnostics for MCMC draws of a categorical variable

Abstract: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular class of statistical methods for simulating autocorrelated draws from target distributions, including posterior distributions in Bayesian analysis. An important consideration in using simulated MCMC draws for inference is that the sampling algorithm has converged to the distribution of interest. Since the distribution is typically of a non-standard form, convergence cannot generally be proven and, instead, is assessed with convergence diagnostics. Although parameters used in the MCMC framework are typically continuous, there are many situations in which simulating a categorical variable is desired. Examples include indicators for model inclusion in Bayesian variable selection and latent categorical component variables in mixture modeling. Traditional convergence diagnostics are designed for continuous variables and may be inappropriate for categorical variables. In this paper two convergence diagnostic methods are considered which are appropriate for MCMC data. The diagnostics discussed in the paper utilize chi-squared test statistics for dependent data. Performance of the convergence diagnostics is evaluated under various simulations. Finally, the diagnostics are applied to a real data set where reversible jump MCMC is used to sample from a finite mixture model.