Data Assimilation for a Geological Process Model Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract: We consider the problem of conditioning a geological process-based computer simulation, which produces basin models by simulating transport and deposition of sediments, to data. Emphasising uncertainty quantification, we frame this as a Bayesian inverse problem, and propose to characterize the posterior probability distribution of the geological quantities of interest by using a variant of the ensemble Kalman filter, an estimation method which linearly and sequentially conditions realisations of the system state to data. A test case involving synthetic data is used to assess the performance of the proposed estimation method, and to compare it with similar approaches. We further apply the method to a more realistic test case, involving real well data from the Colville foreland basin, North Slope, Alaska.