Combinatorial framework for planning in geological exploration

Abstract: The paper describes combinatorial framework for planning of geological exploration for oil-gas fields. The suggested scheme of the geological exploration involves the following stages: (1) building of special 4-layer tree-like model (layer of geological exploration): productive layer, group of productive layers, oil-gas field, oil-gas region (or group of the fields); (2) generations of local design (exploration) alternatives for each low-layer geological objects: conservation, additional search, independent utilization, joint utilization; (3) multicriteria (i.e., multi-attribute) assessment of the design (exploration) alternatives and their interrelation (compatibility) and mapping if the obtained vector estimates into integrated ordinal scale; (4) hierarchical design ('bottom-up') of composite exploration plans for each oil-gas field; (5) integration of the plans into region plans and (6) aggregation of the region plans into a general exploration plan. Stages 2, 3, 4, and 5 are based on hierarchical multicriteria morphological design (HMMD) method (assessment of ranking of alternatives, selection and composition of alternatives into composite alternatives). The composition problem is based on morphological clique model. Aggregation of the obtained modular alternatives (stage 6) is based on detection of a alternatives 'kernel' and its extension by addition of elements (multiple choice model). In addition, the usage of multiset estimates for alternatives is described as well. The alternative estimates are based on expert judgment. The suggested combinatorial planning methodology is illustrated by numerical examples for geological exploration of Yamal peninsula.