Improving Power Grid Resilience Through Predictive Outage Estimation

Abstract: In this paper, in an attempt to improve power grid resilience, a machine learning model is proposed to predictively estimate the component states in response to extreme events. The proposed model is based on a multi-dimensional Support Vector Machine (SVM) considering the associated resilience index, i.e., the infrastructure quality level and the time duration that each component can withstand the event, as well as predicted path and intensity of the upcoming extreme event. The outcome of the proposed model is the classified component state data to two categories of outage and operational, which can be further used to schedule system resources in a predictive manner with the objective of maximizing its resilience. The proposed model is validated using \"A-fold cross-validation and model benchmarking techniques. The performance of the model is tested through numerical simulations and based on a well-defined and commonly-used performance measure.