Modeling goal chances in soccer: a Bayesian inference approach

Abstract: We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch of the assist and the chance. We propose an interpretable Bayesian inference approach and implement a Poisson model to capture chance occurrences, from which we infer team abilities. We then use a Gaussian mixture model to capture the areas on the pitch a player makes an assist/takes a chance. This approach allows the visualization of differences between players in the way they approach attacking play (making assists/taking chances). We apply the resulting scheme to the 2016/2017 English Premier League, capturing team abilities to create chances, before highlighting key areas where players have most impact.