The Geometry of Most Probable Trajectories in Noise-Driven Dynamical Systems

Abstract: This paper presents a heuristic derivation of a geometric minimum action method that can be used to determine most-probable transition paths in noise-driven dynamical systems. Particular attention is focused on systems that violate detailed balance, and the role of the stochastic vorticity tensor is emphasized. The general method is explored through a detailed study of a two-dimensional quadratic shear flow which exhibits bifurcating most-probable transition pathways.