A reconstruction of Florida Traffic Flow During Hurricane Irma (2017)

Abstract: Recent Hurricane Irma (2017) created the most extensive scale of evacuation in Florida's history, involving about 6.5 million people on mandatory evacuation order and 4 million evacuation vehicles. To understand the hurricane evacuation process, the spatial and temporal evolution of the traffic flow is a critical piece of information, but it is usually not fully observed. Based on the game theory, this paper employs the available traffic observation on main highways (20 cameras; including parts of Route 1, 27 and I-75, 95, 4,10) during Irma to reconstruct the traffic flow in Florida during Irma. The model is validated with self-reported twitters. The traffic reconstruction estimates the traffic demand (about 4 million cars in total) and the temporal and spatial distribution of congestion during the evacuation. The results compare well with available information from news reports and Twitter records. The reconstructed data can be used to analyze hurricane evacuation decisions and travel behavior.