Distributed and Optimal Resilient Planning of Large-Scale Interdependent Critical Infrastructures

Abstract: The complex interconnections between heterogeneous critical infrastructure sectors make the system of systems (SoS) vulnerable to natural or human-made disasters and lead to cascading failures both within and across sectors. Hence, the robustness and resilience of the interdependent critical infrastructures (ICIs) against extreme events are essential for delivering reliable and efficient services to our society. To this end, we first establish a holistic probabilistic network model to model the interdependencies between infrastructure components. To capture the underlying failure and recovery dynamics of ICIs, we further propose a Markov decision processes (MDP) model in which the repair policy determines a long-term performance of the ICIs. To address the challenges that arise from the curse of dimensionality of the MDP, we reformulate the problem as an approximate linear program and then simplify it using factored graphs. We further obtain the distributed optimal control for ICIs under mild assumptions. Finally, we use a case study of the interdependent power and subway systems to corroborate the results and show that the optimal resilience resource planning and allocation can reduce the failure probability and mitigate the impact of failures caused by natural or artificial disasters.