Adversarial Balancing for Causal Inference

Abstract: Biases in observational data of treatments pose a major challenge to estimating expected treatment outcomes in different populations. An important technique that accounts for these biases is reweighting samples to minimize the discrepancy between treatment groups. We present a novel reweighting approach that uses bi-level optimization to alternately train a discriminator to minimize classification error, and a balancing weights generator that uses exponentiated gradient descent to maximize this error. This approach borrows principles from generative adversarial networks (GANs) to exploit the power of classifiers for measuring two-sample divergence. We provide theoretical results for conditions in which the estimation error is bounded by two factors: (i) the discrepancy measure induced by the discriminator; and (ii) the weights variability. Experimental results on several benchmarks comparing to previous state-of-the-art reweighting methods demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in estimating causal effects.