Declination as a Metric to Detect Partisan Gerrymandering

Abstract: We explore the Declination, a new metric intended to detect partisan gerrymandering. We consider instances in which each district has equal turnout, the maximum turnout to minimum turnout is bounded, and turnout is unrestricted. For each of these cases, we show exactly which vote-share, seat-share pairs $(V,S)$ have an election outcome with Declination equal to 0. We also show how our analyses can be applied to finding vote-share, seat-share pairs that are possible for nonzero Declination. Within our analyses, we show that Declination cannot detect all forms of packing and cracking, and we compare the Declination to the Efficiency Gap. We show that these two metrics can behave quite differently, and give explicit examples of that occurring.