Non-Gaussian Geostatistical Modeling using (skew) t Processes

Abstract: We propose a new model for regression and dependence analysis when addressing spatial data with possibly heavy tails and an asymmetric marginal distribution. We first propose a stationary process with $t$ marginals obtained through scale mixing of a Gaussian process with an inverse square root process with Gamma marginals. We then generalize this construction by considering a skew-Gaussian process, thus obtaining a process with skew-t marginal distributions. For the proposed (skew) $t$ process we study the second-order and geometrical properties and in the $t$ case, we provide analytic expressions for the bivariate distribution. In an extensive simulation study, we investigate the use of the weighted pairwise likelihood as a method of estimation for the $t$ process. Moreover we compare the performance of the optimal linear predictor of the $t$ process versus the optimal Gaussian predictor. Finally, the effectiveness of our methodology is illustrated by analyzing a georeferenced dataset on maximum temperatures in Australia