Evaluating Quasi-Periodic Variations in the $γ$-ray Lightcurves of Fermi-LAT Blazars

Abstract: The detection of periodicities in light curves of active galacticnuclei (AGN) could have profound consequences for our understanding of the nature and radiation physics of these objects. At high energies (HE; E>100 MeV) 5 blazars (PG 1553+113,PKS 2155-304, 0426-380, 0537-441, 0301-243) have been reported to show year-like quasi-periodic variations (QPVs) with significance >3 sig. As these findings are based on few cycles only, care needs to be taken to properly account for random variations which can produce intervals of seemingly periodic behaviour. We present results of an updated timing analysis for 6 blazars (adding PKS 0447-439), utilizing suitable methods to evaluate their long term variability properties and to search for QPVs in their light curves. We generate gamma-ray light curves covering almost 10 years, study their timing properties and search for QPVs using the Lomb-Scargle Periodogram and the Wavelet Z-transform. Extended Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the statistical significance. Comparing their probability density functions (PDFs), all sources (except PG 1553+113) exhibit a clear deviation from a Gaussian distribution, but are consistent with being log-normal, suggesting that the underlying variability is of a non-linear, multiplicative nature. Apart from PKS 0301-243 the power spectral density for all investigated blazars is close to flicker noise (PL slope -1). Possible QPVs with a local significance ~ 3 sig. are found in all light curves (apart from PKS 0426-380 and 0537-441), with observed periods between (1.7-2.8) yr. The evidence is strongly reduced, however, if evaluated in terms of a global significance. Our results advise caution as to the significance of reported year-like HE QPVs in blazars. Somewhat surprisingly, the putative, redshift-corrected periods are all clustering around 1.6 yr. We speculate on possible implications for QPV generation.