On the growth of Mordell-Weil ranks in $p$-adic Lie extensions

Abstract: Let $p$ be an odd prime and $F_{\infty}$ a $p$-adic Lie extension of a number field $F$. Let $A$ be an abelian variety over $F$ which has ordinary reduction at every primes above $p$. Under various assumptions, we establish asymptotic upper bounds for the growth of Mordell-Weil rank of the abelian variety of $A$ in the said $p$-adic Lie extension. Our upper bound can be expressed in terms of invariants coming from the cyclotomic level. Motivated by this formula, we make a conjecture on an asymptotic upper bound of the growth of Mordell-Weil ranks over a $p$-adic Lie extension which is in terms of the Mordell-Weil rank of the abelian variety over the cyclotomic $\mathbb{Z}_p$-extension. Finally, it is then natural to ask whether there is such a conjectural upper bound when the abelian variety has non-ordinary reduction. For this, we can at least modestly formulate an analogue conjectural upper bound for the growth of Mordell-Weil ranks of an elliptic curve with good supersingular reduction at the prime $p$ over a $\mathbb{Z}_p^2$-extension of an imaginary quadratic field.