Local Polynomial Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in Nonlinear Models

Abstract: We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial (quasi-) maximum-likelihood estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time series models. Under weak regularity conditions, we show the proposed estimators are consistent and follow normal distributions in large samples. Our conditions impose weaker smoothness and moment conditions on the data-generating process and its likelihood compared to existing theories. Furthermore, the bias terms of the estimators take a simpler form. We demonstrate the usefulness of our general results by applying our theory to local (quasi-)maximum-likelihood estimators of a time-varying VAR's, ARCH and GARCH, and Poisson autogressions. For the first three models, we are able to substantially weaken the conditions found in the existing literature. For the Poisson autogression, existing theories cannot be be applied while our novel approach allows us to analyze it.