A Causality-Guided Prediction of the TED Talk Ratings from the Speech-Transcripts using Neural Networks

Abstract: Automated prediction of public speaking performance enables novel systems for tutoring public speaking skills. We use the largest open repository---TED Talks---to predict the ratings provided by the online viewers. The dataset contains over 2200 talk transcripts and the associated meta information including over 5.5 million ratings from spontaneous visitors to the website. We carefully removed the bias present in the dataset (e.g., the speakers' reputations, popularity gained by publicity, etc.) by modeling the data generating process using a causal diagram. We use a word sequence based recurrent architecture and a dependency tree based recursive architecture as the neural networks for predicting the TED talk ratings. Our neural network models can predict the ratings with an average F-score of 0.77 which largely outperforms the competitive baseline method.