Quantifying Novelty and Influence, and the Patterns of Paradigm Shifts

Abstract: Recent advances in the quantitative, computational methodology for the modeling and analysis of heterogeneous large-scale data are leading to new opportunities for understanding of human behaviors and faculties, including the manifestation of creativity that drives creative enterprises such as science. While innovation is crucial for novel and influential achievements, quantifying these qualities in creative works remains a challenge. Here we present an information-theoretic framework for computing the novelty and influence of creative works based on their generation probabilities reflecting the degree of uniqueness of their elements in comparison with other works. Applying the formalism to the data set of a high-quality, large-scale classical piano compositions represented as symbolic progressions of chords-works of significant scientific and intellectual value-spanning several centuries of musical history, we find that the enterprise's developmental history can be characterized as a dynamic process of the emergence of dominant, paradigmatic creative styles that define distinct historical periods. These findings can lead to a deeper understanding of innovation, human creativity, and the advancement of creative enterprises.