A predicted distribution for Galois groups of maximal unramified extensions

Abstract: We consider the distribution of the Galois groups $\operatorname{Gal}(K^{\operatorname{un}}/K)$ of maximal unramified extensions as $K$ ranges over $\Gamma$-extensions of $\mathbb{Q}$ or $\mathbb{F}_q(t)$. We prove two properties of $\operatorname{Gal}(K^{\operatorname{un}}/K)$ coming from number theory, which we use as motivation to build a probability distribution on profinite groups with these properties. In Part I, we build such a distribution as a limit of distributions on $n$-generated profinite groups. In Part II, we prove as $q\rightarrow\infty$, agreement of $\operatorname{Gal}(K^{\operatorname{un}}/K)$ as $K$ varies over totally real $\Gamma$-extensions of $\mathbb{F}_q(t)$ with our distribution from Part I, in the moments that are relatively prime to $q(q-1)|\Gamma|$. In particular, we prove for every finite group $\Gamma$, in the $q\rightarrow\infty$ limit, the prime-to-$q(q-1)|\Gamma|$-moments of the distribution of class groups of totally real $\Gamma$-extensions of $\mathbb{F}_q(t)$ agree with the prediction of the Cohen--Lenstra--Martinet heuristics.