Climate-driven statistical models as effective predictors of local dengue incidence in Costa Rica: A Generalized Additive Model and Random Forest approach

Abstract: Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993, inflicting substantial economic, social, and public health repercussions. Using the number of dengue reported cases and climate data from 2007-2017, we fitted a prediction model applying a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Random Forest (RF) approach, which allowed us to retrospectively predict the relative risk of dengue in five climatological diverse municipalities around the country.