Rethinking the Micro-Foundation of Opinion Dynamics: Rich Consequences of the Weighted-Median Mechanism

Abstract: To identify the main mechanisms underlying complex opinion formation processes in social systems, researchers have long been exploring simple mechanistic mathematical models. Most existing opinion dynamics models are built on a common micro-foundation, i.e., the weighted-averaging opinion update. However, we argue that this universally-adopted mechanism features a non-negligible unrealistic feature, which brings unnecessary difficulties in seeking a proper balance between model complexity and predictive power. In this paper, we propose the weighted-median mechanism as a new micro-foundation of opinion dynamics, which, with minimal assumptions, fundamentally resolves the inherent unrealistic feature of the weighted-averaging mechanism. Derived from the cognitive dissonance theory in psychology, the weighted-median mechanism is supported by online experiment data and broadens the applicability of opinion dynamics models to multiple-choice issues with ordered discrete options. Moreover, the weighted-median mechanism, despite being the simplest in form, captures various non-trivial real-world features of opinion evolution, while some widely-studied averaging-based models fail to.