Quantitative singularity theory for random polynomials

Abstract: Motivated by Hilbert's 16th problem we discuss the probabilities of topological features of a system of random homogeneous polynomials. The distribution for the polynomials is the Kostlan distribution. The topological features we consider are type-$W$ singular loci. This is a term that we introduce and that is defined by a list of equalities and inequalities on the derivatives of the polynomials. In technical terms a type-$W$ singular locus is the set of points where the jet of the Kostlan polynomials belongs to a semialgebraic subset $W$ of the jet space, which we require to be invariant under orthogonal change of variables. For instance, the zero set of polynomial functions or the set of critical points fall under this definition. We will show that, with overwhelming probability, the type-$W$ singular locus of a Kostlan polynomial is ambient isotopic to that of a polynomial of lower degree. As a crucial result, this implies that complicated topological configurations are rare. Our results extend earlier results from Diatta and Lerario who considered the special case of the zero set of a single polynomial. Furthermore, for a given polynomial function $p$ we provide a deterministic bound for the radius of the ball in the space of differentiable functions with center $p$, in which the $W$-singularity structure is constant.