Within-host phenotypic evolution and the population-level control of chronic viral infections by treatment and prophylaxis

Abstract: Chronic viral infections can persist in an infected person for decades. From the perspective of the virus, a single infection can span thousands of generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex evolutionary history. We propose a mathematical framework for understanding how the emergence of new viral strains and phenotype within infected persons affects the population-level control of those infections by both non-curative treatment and chemo-prophylactic measures. We consider the within-host emergence of new strains that lack phenotype novelty and also the evolution of variability in contagiousness, resistance to therapy, and efficacy of prophylaxis. Our framework balances the need for verisimilitude with our desire to retain a model that can be approached analytically. We show how to compute the population-level basic reproduction number accounting for the within-host evolutionary process where new phenotypes emerge and are lost in infected persons, which we also extend to include both treatment and prophylactic control efforts. This allows us to make clear statements about both the global and relative efficacy of different control efforts accounting for within-host phenotypic evolution. Finally, we give expressions for the endemic equilibrium of these models for certain constrained versions of the within-host evolutionary model providing a potential method for estimating within-host evolutionary parameters from population-level genetic sequence data.