Machine learning of committor functions for predicting high impact climate events

Abstract: There is a growing interest in the climate community to improve the prediction of high impact climate events, for instance ENSO (El-Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation) or extreme events, using a combination of model and observation data. In this note we explain that, in a dynamical context, the relevant quantity for predicting a future event is a committor function. We explain the main mathematical properties of this probabilistic concept. We compute and discuss the committor function of the Jin and Timmerman model of El-Ni{~n}o. Our first conclusion is that one should generically distinguish between states with either intrinsic predictability or intrinsic unpredictability. This predictability concept is markedly different from the deterministic unpredictability arising because of chaotic dynamics and exponential sensibility to initial conditions. The second aim of this work is to compare the inference of a committor function from data, either through a direct approach or through a machine learning approach using neural networks. We discuss the consequences of this study for future applications to more complex data sets.