Dynamic Influence on Replicator Evolution for the Propagation of Competing Technologies

Abstract: This work introduces a novel modified Replicator Dynamics model, which includes external influences on the population. This framework models a realistic market into which companies, the external dynamic influences, invest resources in order to bolster their product's standing and increase their market share. The dynamic influences change in each time step of the game, and directly modify the payoff matrix of the population's interactions. The model can learn from real data how each influence affects the market, and can be used to simulate and predict the outcome of a real system. We specifically analyze how a new technology can compete and attempt to unseat an entrenched technology as the market leader. We establish a relationship between the external influences and the population payoff matrix and show how the system can be implemented to predict outcomes in a real market by simulating the rise of the Android mobile operating system over its primary competition, the iPhone, from 2009 to 2017.