Simultaneous Inference for Empirical Best Predictors with a Poverty Study in Small Areas

Abstract: Today, generalized linear mixed models are broadly used in many fields. However, the development of tools for performing simultaneous inference has been largely neglected in this domain. A framework for joint inference is indispensable to carry out statistically valid multiple comparisons of parameters of interest between all or several clusters. We therefore develop simultaneous confidence intervals and multiple testing procedures for empirical best predictors under generalized linear mixed models. In addition, we implement our methodology to study widely employed examples of mixed models, that is, the unit-level binomial, the area-level Poisson-gamma and the area-level Poisson-lognormal mixed models. The asymptotic results are accompanied by extensive simulations. A case study on predicting poverty rates illustrates applicability and advantages of our simultaneous inference tools.