Spatial risk estimation in Tweedie compound Poisson double generalized linear models

Abstract: Tweedie exponential dispersion family constitutes a fairly rich sub-class of the celebrated exponential family. In particular, a member, compound Poisson gamma (CP-g) model has seen extensive use over the past decade for modeling mixed response featuring exact zeros with a continuous response from a gamma distribution. This paper proposes a framework to perform residual analysis on CP-g double generalized linear models for spatial uncertainty quantification. Approximations are introduced to proposed framework making the procedure scalable, without compromise in accuracy of estimation and model complexity; accompanied by sensitivity analysis to model mis-specification. Proposed framework is applied to modeling spatial uncertainty in insurance loss costs arising from automobile collision coverage. Scalability is demonstrated by choosing sizable spatial reference domains comprised of groups of states within the United States of America.